One of the most obvious signs of the war\'s impact on the current economic situation is the price of crude oil, which rose above 110 on March 2. April WTI: 110.60 up 7.19; May Brent: 112.93 up 7.96. April WTI: 110.60 up 7.19; May Brent: 112.93 up 7.96. The price of crude oil rose much higher than in previous years, topping $100 a barrel and continuing to rise as the war continued.
And the price of polyethylene futures by its impact is also very obvious, on March 3, polyethylene dazhong main contract L2205 opened 9125 yuan/ton, intraday highest hit 9325 yuan/ton, the lowest 9010 yuan/ton, closed 9319 yuan/ton, up 221 yuan/ton, or 2.43%. Total 511463, positions 333050. In the same period last year, the main contract L2105 opened 8930 yuan/ton, the highest intraday hit 9075 yuan/ton, the lowest 8865 yuan/ton, closed 9035 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan/ton, or 3.20%. Total number of hands 690,133, positions 350,801. In addition, this year, the polyethylene market is affected by political factors such as the holding of the Winter Olympics, and the downstream demand recovers later than the same period last year, which means that the spot market is less accepting of the current market price, but even so, today\'s futures are still in an upward trend.
The reason for price fluctuation of upstream raw material the polypropylene material
Oil head route polyethylene still occupies a dominant position in the market, from crude oil to naphtha to ethylene monomer and finally to polyethylene, the price fluctuation of crude oil and naphtha will directly affect the price of polyethylene.
The fluctuation of the price of upstream raw material the polypropylene material has two kinds of influences on the polyethylene market in short term and long term. Short-term impact is the psychological impact of price fluctuations on intermediate traders. The change of dealers\' bullish or bearish psychology is closely related to the price change of the polypropylene material of raw materials. For example, the continuous surge of oil prices or monomers may stimulate the speculation of dealers leading to a large volume of transactions, promoting the price of polyethylene. The impact is a cost driver and a long-term impact. The production and processing of polyethylene has a certain cycle, the rise and fall of crude oil will not have an impact on the cost of polyethylene spot in the short term, and the cost fluctuation will have a certain delay. If you are looking for the polypropylene material, please feel free to get a quote for the latest price, send an email to: [email protected] and POLYPVC sales team will reply within 48 hours.
Price fluctuation analysis of the polypropylene material of upstream raw materials
The polypropylene material in terms of supply is still mainly concerned with "two barrels of oil", that is, the inventory of CNPC and Sinopec, the maintenance and switch of equipment, and the settlement and assessment policies of sinopec. The impact of "two barrels of oil" may be weakened in the future as other processes such as coal-to-olefin and propane dehydrogenation come into operation. At present, the level of petrochemical inventory is an important factor affecting the price of polyethylene. Currently, the normal level of petrochemical stocks is about 700, 000 tons. When the inventory level exceeds the normal inventory, domestic petrochemical companies may take measures to reduce prices to promote sales under the pressure of sales. Conversely, when sales are smooth and inventories are low, it also means that petrochemical has the potential to push up. The overhaul and brand switching of the device will lead to changes in the original supply of a certain brand of the polypropylene material, breaking the original supply-demand balance and causing price fluctuations of the polypropylene material. The evaluation policy of the manufacturer will also have an impact on the price of the polypropylene material. For example, Sinopec settlement at the end of the month and petrochina monthly buy-out will have an impact on spot prices in terms of supply and pricing.
Import impact of price fluctuation of upstream raw material the polypropylene material
The influence of imported supply on the market price of the polypropylene material is mainly reflected in both quantity and price, and the influence of quantity is more important. Under normal circumstances, the foreign suppliers will sell a relatively fixed quantity to the Chinese mainland market, and the change of supply will affect the balance of supply and demand in the domestic market. If the domestic supply and demand are relatively stable, the import volume will shrink or surge for several consecutive months, which will lead to the destruction of the original balance between supply and demand. In the process of realizing the new balance of the polypropylene material, the spot price will rise and fall significantly.
Speculative demand analysis of price fluctuation of upstream raw material the polypropylene material
The change of the polypropylene material supply is closely related to the maintenance and operation rate of the equipment in the region, as well as the domestic demand in the region and the market conditions in the surrounding areas.
Speculative demand generally refers to changes in demand caused by traders\' actions, such as centralized stocking of goods or selling of the polypropylene material. The main aspects involved include traders\' inventory, source cost, capital status and mentality. Traders\' stocks are another major component of the amount of social resources. The inventory of the polypropylene material, a trader, represents the capacity of "reservoir". The high inventory level means that the market circulation link of the polypropylene material is not smooth, and the price rises are weak, showing signs of weakness. And low inventory, said the market transaction is ok, with upward momentum. In terms of financial situation, if traders are under pressure to pay foreign exchange, they will sell goods at low prices to recover funds, leading to ultra-low quotations in the market and shaking sentiment in the uncertain situation. But in general, this has limited impact on prices. In terms of mentality, it mainly refers to traders\' expectations for the future market, which is directly related to whether to stock up and warehouse construction. It has a more obvious influence on short-term trading volume, thus guiding the price direction.
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If you are looking for the polypropylene material, please feel free to get a quote for the latest price, send an email to: [email protected] and POLYPVC sales team will reply within 48 hours.
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